2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey
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| Elections in New Jersey |
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The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by a 6.68% margin of victory in New Jersey. However, Bush was re-elected to the presidency.
Prior to the election, most news organizations considered New Jersey a blue state that Kerry would win. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, political observers believed that the presidential contest in New Jersey would be closer than usual. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign, and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state.[citation needed]
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. The table below shows their final predictions before Election Day.[2]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Cook Political Report | Likely D |
| Research 2000 | Solid D |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Post | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
| Washington Times | Solid D |
| The New York Times | Lean D |
| CNN | Likely D |
| Newsweek | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Solid D |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely D |
Polling
[edit]Kerry led by small margins in most pre-election polls taken in New Jersey. A final three-poll rolling average showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 42%.[3]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
John Kerry (D) |
Ralph Nader (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[4] | June 11–16, 2003 | 815 RV | ±3.4% | 53% | 37% | – | 1% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac[5] | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% | |
| Quinnipiac[6] | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[7] | May 10–16, 2004 | 1,122 RV | ±2.9% | 44% | 47% | – | 1% | 7% |
| 43% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| Quinnipiac[8] | June 15–20, 2004 | 1,167 RV | ±2.9% | 41% | 49% | – | 2% | 7% |
| 40% | 46% | 7% | 0% | 7% | ||||
| Quinnipiac[9] | July 30–August 2, 2004 | 996 RV | ±3.1% | 38% | 52% | – | 2% | 8% |
| 36% | 49% | 6% | 1% | 8% | ||||
| Quinnipiac[10] | August 19–23, 2004 | 887 RV | ±3.3% | 39% | 51% | – | 1% | 8% |
| 39% | 49% | 4% | 1% | 8% | ||||
| Quinnipiac[11] | September 16–19, 2004 | 672 LV | ±3.8% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
| 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 2% | ||||
| 943 RV | ±3.2% | 43% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 6% | ||
| Quinnipiac[12] | October 1–4, 2004 | 819 LV | ±3.4% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 46% | 49% | – | 1% | 4% | ||||
| Quinnipiac[13] | October 14–17, 2004 | 786 LV | ±2.9% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 45% | 50% | – | 0% | 5% | ||||
| 1,123 RV | ±2.9% | 39% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 12% | ||
| Quinnipiac[14] | October 21–25, 2004 | 852 LV | ±3.4% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| 1,179 RV | ±2.9% | 41% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 12% | ||
| Quinnipiac[15] | October 27–31, 2004 | 984 LV | ±3.1% | 43% | 48% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[16] | December 3–9, 2002 | 934 RV | ±3.2% | 43% | 45% | 2% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Wesley Clark (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[5] | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | 47% | 42% | 11% | |
| Quinnipiac[6] | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 47% | 45% | 1% | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Hillary Clinton (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[4] | June 11–16, 2003 | 815 RV | ±3.4% | 54% | 38% | 2% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[5] | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | 47% | 45% | 8% | |
| Quinnipiac[6] | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 46% | 45% | 1% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Howard Dean (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[5] | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | 50% | 40% | 10% | |
| Quinnipiac[6] | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Dick Gephardt (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[5] | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | 48% | 44% | 8% | |
| Quinnipiac[6] | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Al Gore (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[16] | December 3–9, 2002 | 934 RV | ±3.2% | 48% | 45% | 2% | 5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George W. Bush (R) |
Joe Lieberman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[4] | June 11–16, 2003 | 815 RV | ±3.4% | 53% | 39% | 1% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[5] | September 18–22, 2003 | 968 RV | ±3.2% | 49% | 44% | 7% | |
| Quinnipiac[6] | November 6–10, 2003 | 1,027 RV | ±3.1% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 5% |
Fundraising
[edit]Bush raised $5,934,011 from New Jersey donors,[17] while Kerry raised $6,513,274.[18]
Results
[edit]| 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey[19][20] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 1,911,430 | 52.92% | 15 | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (Inc.) | 1,670,003 | 46.24% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 19,418 | 0.54% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 4,514 | 0.12% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | 2,750 | 0.08% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 1,807 | 0.05% | 0 | |
| Socialist | Walt Brown | 664 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Socialist Equality | Bill Van Auken | 575 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | Roger Calero | 530 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Totals | 3,611,691 | 100.00% | 15 | ||
| Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) | 56%/72% | ||||
By county
[edit]| County | John Kerry Democratic |
George W. Bush Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Atlantic | 55,746 | 52.54% | 49,487 | 46.64% | 864 | 0.81% | 6,259 | 5.90% | 106,097 |
| Bergen | 207,666 | 51.88% | 189,833 | 47.43% | 2,745 | 0.69% | 17,833 | 4.45% | 400,244 |
| Burlington | 110,411 | 53.09% | 95,936 | 46.13% | 1,609 | 0.77% | 14,475 | 6.96% | 207,956 |
| Camden | 137,765 | 62.36% | 81,427 | 36.86% | 1,741 | 0.79% | 56,338 | 25.50% | 220,933 |
| Cape May | 21,475 | 42.31% | 28,832 | 56.80% | 455 | 0.90% | −7,357 | −14.49% | 50,762 |
| Cumberland | 27,875 | 52.41% | 24,362 | 45.81% | 948 | 1.78% | 3,513 | 6.60% | 53,185 |
| Essex | 203,681 | 70.39% | 83,374 | 28.81% | 2,293 | 0.79% | 120,307 | 41.58% | 289,348 |
| Gloucester | 66,835 | 52.23% | 60,033 | 46.91% | 1,096 | 0.86% | 6,802 | 5.32% | 127,964 |
| Hudson | 127,447 | 67.24% | 60,646 | 31.99% | 1,461 | 0.77% | 66,801 | 35.25% | 189,554 |
| Hunterdon | 26,050 | 39.07% | 39,888 | 59.82% | 742 | 1.11% | −13,838 | −20.75% | 66,680 |
| Mercer | 91,580 | 61.25% | 56,604 | 37.86% | 1,326 | 0.89% | 34,976 | 23.39% | 149,510 |
| Middlesex | 166,628 | 56.33% | 126,492 | 42.76% | 2,685 | 0.91% | 40,136 | 13.57% | 295,805 |
| Monmouth | 133,773 | 44.60% | 163,650 | 54.56% | 2,516 | 0.84% | −29,877 | −9.96% | 299,939 |
| Morris | 98,066 | 41.70% | 135,241 | 57.51% | 1,847 | 0.79% | −37,175 | −15.81% | 235,154 |
| Ocean | 99,839 | 38.93% | 154,204 | 60.13% | 2,424 | 0.95% | −54,365 | −21.20% | 256,467 |
| Passaic | 94,962 | 55.43% | 75,200 | 43.90% | 1,149 | 0.67% | 19,762 | 11.53% | 171,311 |
| Salem | 13,749 | 46.17% | 15,721 | 52.79% | 311 | 1.04% | −1,972 | −6.62% | 29,781 |
| Somerset | 66,476 | 47.39% | 72,508 | 51.69% | 1,295 | 0.92% | −6,032 | −4.30% | 140,279 |
| Sussex | 23,990 | 34.54% | 44,506 | 64.08% | 962 | 1.38% | −20,516 | −29.54% | 69,458 |
| Union | 119,372 | 58.66% | 82,517 | 40.55% | 1,613 | 0.79% | 36,855 | 18.11% | 203,502 |
| Warren | 18,044 | 37.43% | 29,542 | 61.28% | 622 | 1.29% | −11,498 | −23.85% | 48,208 |
| Totals | 1,911,430 | 52.92% | 1,670,003 | 46.23% | 30,704 | 0.85% | 241,427 | 6.69% | 3,612,137 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
- Monmouth (largest municipality: Middletown Township)
| Democratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
By congressional district
[edit]Kerry won seven of 13 congressional districts.[21]
| District | Kerry | Bush | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 61% | 39% | Rob Andrews |
| 2nd | 49% | 50% | Frank LoBiondo |
| 3rd | 49% | 51% | Jim Saxton |
| 4th | 44% | 56% | Chris Smith |
| 5th | 43% | 57% | Scott Garrett |
| 6th | 57% | 43% | Frank Pallone Jr. |
| 7th | 47% | 53% | Mike Ferguson |
| 8th | 59% | 41% | Bill Pascrell |
| 9th | 59% | 41% | Steve Rothman |
| 10th | 82% | 18% | Donald Payne |
| 11th | 42% | 58% | Rodney Frelinghuysen |
| 12th | 54% | 46% | Rush Holt Jr. |
| 13th | 69% | 31% | Bob Menendez |
Analysis
[edit]Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. Bush won the largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris) and Salem County in the southwest. He also carried the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May.
This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the first time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1860 and 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.
Electors
[edit]The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state of New Jersey in 2004. All 15 were pledged to support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.[22]
- Warren Wallace
- Wilfredo Caraballo
- Tom Canzanella
- Carolyn Walch
- Peggy Anastos
- Bernard Kenny
- Ronald Rice
- Abed Awad
- Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
- Wendy Benchle
- Loni Kaplan
- Carolyn Wade
- Riletta L. Cream
- Bernadette McPherson
- Upendra Chivukula
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "General Election Data - 1924 to 2022" (PDF). NJ.gov.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". D.C.'s Political Report. October 29, 2004. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
- ^ "Election poll data". uselectionatlas.org. 2004.
- ^ a b c "Bush Has Big Lead Over Dem Challengers In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton Would Dominate Dem Pack". Quinnipiac Poll. June 19, 2003. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f "Bush Approval Slips To A Break Even In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrats Are Nipping At His Heels". Quinnipiac Poll. September 25, 2003. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f "Bush Approval Drops Again In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Top Democrats Now Run Neck-And-Neck With President". Quinnipiac Poll. November 13, 2003. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Kerry Edges Bush By Only 3 Points In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Concerns About Iraq, Terrorism Help President". Quinnipiac Poll. May 20, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Bush Drops, Giving Kerry Bigger Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President's Approval At All-Time Low In State". Quinnipiac Poll. June 23, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Kerry Bounces In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Low Bush Approval, Little Support For War". Quinnipiac Poll. August 5, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Kerry Holds 10-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corzine Buries GOP Contenders In Gov Race". Quinnipiac Poll. August 25, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Terrorism Fear Lifts Bush To Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Iraq War Is Wrong And Economy Is Bad". Quinnipiac Poll. September 21, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Debate Gives Kerry 3-Point Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Say Bush Acts More Like A Leader". Quinnipiac Poll. October 6, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Kerry Has 4-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Matches Bush On Vision, But Not Leadership". Quinnipiac Poll. October 19, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Terrorism Concerns, Campaign Visit Help President". Quinnipiac Poll. October 27, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll Results In 3 Key States: * Bush Leads Kerry 51 - 43 Percent In Florida; * Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In Pennsylvania; * Kerry Is Ahead 48 - 43 Percent In New Jersey". Quinnipiac Poll. November 1, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ a b "Bush VS. Gore II Is Neck & Neck In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Ex V.P. Is Top Choice Of Garden State Dems". Quinnipiac Poll. December 13, 2002. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
- ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com.
- ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". campaignmoney.com.
- ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004".
- ^ "Official General Election Candidates List" (PDF).
- ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
- ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2004 Certificate". archives.gov. May 20, 2019.
External links
[edit]
