Communicating Statistical Information
@article{Hoffrage2000CommunicatingSI, title={Communicating Statistical Information}, author={Ulrich Hoffrage and Samuel Lindsey and Ralph Hertwig and Gerd Gigerenzer}, journal={Science}, year={2000}, volume={290}, pages={2261 - 2262}, url={https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:33050943} }
Hoffrage et al. demonstrate that these difficulties in understanding and combining statistical information effectively can be considerably reduced by communicating the information in terms of natural frequencies rather than in Terms of probabilities.
579 Citations
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Sir,
The recent commentary by Professor McManus1 provides an excellent overview of Dr Gigerenzer’s book, and summarizes the overwhelming appeal of ‘natural frequency’ over traditional descriptions…
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14 References
How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning: Comment on Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995)
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Psychology
G. Gigerenzer and U. Hoffrage (1995) claimed that Bayesian inference problems, which have been notoriously difficult for laypeople to solve using base rates, hit rates, and false-alarm rates, become…
Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999).
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Law, Education
Results indicate that teaching frequency representations fosters insight into Bayesian reasoning in medical experts, and opens up applications in medicine, law, statistics education, and other fields.
Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences
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Medicine
Representing information in natural frequencies is a fast and effective way of facilitating diagnosis insight, which in turn helps physicians to better communicate risks to patients, and patients to better understand these risks.
The Interdependence of Science and Law
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Law
The use of court-appointed scientific experts in technical cases to assist judges in gleaning unbiased information and determining the validity of scientific evidence is used.
How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats
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By analyzing several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems, the authors found that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of all inferences by Bayesian algorithms.
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Abstract We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of the…
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Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results.
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This Article identifies some of the subtle, but common, exaggerations that have occurred at trial, and classifies each in relation to the three questions that are suggested by the chain of reasoning…
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
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This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses: (i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings…